Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
