Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
